I believe the following discussion is interesting, but I'm not sure it has significant impact on your SOM play. You may want to move on now if you are not into the statistical side of the game. It's just a topic that has come up recently among SOM gamers, and I have enjoyed trying to properly think it through. And I'm still not certain that I have….

Are your strikeout pitchers treated unfairly by SOM's X-ball system? The SOM Fan Forum has had a recent running conversation that debates possible adverse effects that SOM's X-ball system has on pitchers with higher strikeout numbers. Some gamers have alleged that the system should be changed, because it gives unfair advantage to pitchers who have low strikeout totals.

To some - myself included - this argument may seem ridiculous at first glance. How could this be when all pitchers have the same number of X-ball chances on their cards? The fact is that strikeout pitchers suffer exactly BECAUSE each pitcher has the same number of X-ball chances on his card! Because of the X-ball system, defensive fielding percentages will go down as the number of pitcher strikeout readings go up. And, of course, as fielding percentages go down, runs allowed go up.

Why do fielding percentages go down with high strikeout pitchers? I don't have the knowledge to do an example of actual players, but I think I can give you an example that is pretty much realistic. This example will be based on 1) an average OBP of .335 and 2) strikeout readings on a pitcher card of first 40 and second 10. The OBP is based on approximate averages in the Major Leagues this past year, and the strikeouts on approximate numbers for Randy Johnson and Mark Buehrle against right-handed batters in the 2004 SOM game.

First of all, remember that strikeout readings on a card simply replace fielding readings (flyout, groundout, pop out, etc.). They do not replace X-ball readings, so that errors could not have been made on the fielding chance. I will keep this analysis simple, looking at only one side of the pitchers card, ignoring that there are actually two sides, as well as a batter card. On one side of any pitcher card, there are 108 readings and 30 of these are X-balls. I'm not up to analyzing the X-charts right now to determine the average errors resulting from X-ball readings, but with an average defense (as far as errors go), we'll say an average of "Z" errors will be made in 108 readings. This Z will remain the same for all pitchers as long as an average defense is behind them.

First, we will look at a card that has 40 strikeouts readings, 36 on-base readings, and 32 fielding readings. We know that 30 of those fielding readings will be X-balls resulting in Z errors. Therefore, on the average, Z errors will be made for every 32 fielded balls.

Now let's say that on another pitcher card the 108 chances include only 10 strikeouts. There will still be - on the average - 36 on-base readings, but now 62 fielding ratings. Again, there are 30 X-balls and Z errors made on them. So now Z errors are made for every 62 fielded balls! The fielding rating will be much better.

Is that right? I think it is, but correct me if I am wrong. Of course, the discrepancy will be lessened when you add in all the readings from the batter cards, but that still seems a rather big difference.

So…neat, huh? If you are like me, you had never thought about that before. The solution - agreed upon by many of members of the SOM Fan Forum- would be to revise the X-chart and make every single non-strikeout chance an X-ball. Fielding percentages would then be the same behind all pitchers.

However, as Forum members have pointed out, two issues make this a major problem. First, for gamers still using the dice game, an extra roll would have to be made every time a fielding chance comes up, instead of just on X-balls. Gamers would surely balk at adding this many dice rolls to the game. (Of course, this would be just about unnoticeable in the computer game.) In addition, with the revised X-chart, new seasons would no longer be compatible with previous seasons, unless programming allowed current teams to use the new chart and previous teams to use the old chart. In other words, things get complicated fast.

Another issue is that the X-chart does do a good job of handling hits allowed by poor defenders, so perhaps the game would end up with two charts replacing one.

Of course, one important factor that has not been fully considered is how significant the effect on high strikeout pitchers is. I think most of us could come up with approximations, but I don't think a satisfactory analysis can be done without sufficient Major League stats and a full understanding of formulae used by SOM.