A Recapped Look at Those 2000 First Round Choices

American League

1.   Barry Zito.  A rough season start has left him with a 5.17 ERA, but he is 3-1 in five starts and his 37 whiffs are second only to Pedro Martinez in the AL.  Call him a Coke (the real thing). 

HMMM - He had a great 2001, but is struggling some in 2002 with the long ball.  Looks to be a 10+ year keeper though!  Great pick.

2.   Mark Mulder.  How many times have pitchers from the same team been drafted 1-2?  He had a rough start too, but has since turned in a couple of masterful outings to pull his ERA down to 4.44.  He's given up only one homer in 24 IP.  He and Zito may prove to be a deadly lefty-lefty steamroller for the A's. 

Ditto + injury (the risk of picking up a young pitcher early)  - What's up with these A's pitchers this year?  ERA near 7.00.  Once the injury bug is over he should be fine.  Worthy of top 5 criteria.

3.   Adam Piatt.  A third Oakland player in a row may have been one two many.  He's learning to play RF, largely platooning against lefties.  He's hitting .257 with 35 ABs, no homers, and no hits against a righty.  His platoon mate (Jeremy Giambi) has fared no better, so maybe Piatt will be given more playing time as the season progresses.  On the other hand, OFer Eric Byrnes is tearing up AAA pitching, and Eric Chavez has long ago wrapped up 3B, Piatt's other position.

Bummer dude.  Meningitis in 2001 cost him a season.  Has yet to play in the bigs yet this year.  Unless he suddenly finds the golden bat, this pick is the worse AL crash and burn since Calvin Pickering.

4.   Mark Redman.  Man, this is awfully high to draft a Minnesota pitcher, especially a lefty.  But it was a weak draft and, hey, the Twins are off to a great start in 2001.  Redman was plodding along adequately this year in the Bigs until his fourth start Tuesday when Carl Everett smacked a grandslam off him, upping his ERA from 3.86 to 5.75.  We predict that the Twins finish below .500 and that Redman does not live up to his status as a #4 pick.  But he still may throw a lot of innings and make someone's 20-man roster. 

This draft had to be bad for this guy to be picked 4th...and look like a decent pick today.  Injuries took there toll on him in 2001, but he has the same 4.50 ERA every year.    Probably shouldn't have been drafted this high, but starting pitching has been such a premium.  OK pick.

5.   Kazuhiro Sasaki.  Again, very high for a relief pitcher, even a closer.  But this pick looks like it may work out.  One bad outing has ballooned his ERA to 5.06 and dropped 3 homers on him in 11 IP.  However, he leads the world with 10 saves and should do fine in the long run.  Another bad outing or two, though, could turn him into the Antonio Alfonseca of 2001.  

Looks like Sasaki has figured out how to keep the ball in park and the victories at hand for Seattle.  The guy is yet to give up a run this year, though he tends to do that in bunches.  High pick for a 70 IP pitcher, but he looks like a solid top 5 pick.

6.   Jose Ortiz.  Hitting .179 with no extra base hits and on the DL.  Looked good in spring training, but things change when the bell rings.  Can't count him out; the A's are showing some life after their slow start, and that might pick him up.  But right now, it doesn't look good.  He could be Joe Morgan; he could be Craig Grebeck.

Craig Grebeck is the winner.  A Colorado hitter with a .662 OPS in 2002 is no friend of mine.  2001 was a waste too as he never figured out what a walk looked like.  Soon to be career backup or AAA fodder. 

7.   John Garland.  Scouts swear he'd be in the Bigs for most teams.  But for the White Sox, he is doing well at AAA with a 2.77 ERA in 26 IP.  He should get some real playing time later this year, as starting pitchers for only two AL teams have ERAs worse than the White Sox.  And, of course, James Baldwin will be back on the DL soon.

Let's see; 2001 stats...117 IP, 3.69 ERA.  Solid year for a rook and had the appearances of a great pick. 2002 is another story.  5.10 ERA and more walks than K's suggest he's overmatched.  He's getting his chance, but he's about ready to head for the bullpen.  A wait and see pick.

8.   Frank Castillo.  This must have been intended to be another of those picks which is good or bad based on whether the team makes the playoffs or not.  But it might not turn out that way.  In four starts with the Red Sox, the oft-injured Castillo has managed an ERA of 3.60, allowing just 23 baserunners and 1 homer in 20 IP.  That includes 6 shutout IP against the world champion Yankees.  Maybe Castillo has turned things around.  If he stays healthy.  Maybe.

Boy, was this right on.  Castillo had a "nice" year posting a 4.26 ERA in 136 IP.  Injuries cost him 1/3 of the year but he hung in.  2002 has proven to be the same as he is sporting a 3.64 ERA in 54 IP.  Not if - but when -  he gets injured or sent to the pen is the question.  His numbers should look identical to last year.  A good pick.

9.   Paul Wilson.  A pick similar to the previous pick of Castillo -- but with many fewer IP for the 2001 LCSB season -- this one has not turned out so well.  Wilson has managed to pitch just 17 innings in 4 starts, giving up 21 runs.  But it is still early, guys, and Tampa Bay does not have much pitching depth to turn to.  I'd cross my fingers.  But I don't think I'll hold my breath.

151 IP, 4.88 ERA.  ERA under 3.50 so far in 2002 though his predicted ERA is over 5.10.  If his career continues like this, he will be a keeper year after year.  Isn't that what you want from a low 1st round pick?

10.  Chris Stynes.  He's been on the DL, but came back Tuesday with a 3-for-5 game to up his numbers to 5-for-14.  Of note, he played 2B, because rookie Shea Hillenbrand is thriving at 3B for the Red Sox.  If he can stay healthy, Stynes should have a good year and play several positions.

Great 2000 rolled into a decent 2001 and a terrible 2002.  Still, a good pick for the draft and it's early enough for him come around.  However he will probably be available in next years NL draft.  Was a good pick though, for the playoff contender he ended up with.

11.  Joe Crede.  Not this year.  Herb Perry and Jose Valentin seem to be handling the White Sox hot corner adequately.  And did you really expect him to jump to the Bigs this year?  Of course not.  He's in AAA, hitting .259 with a couple of homers in 59 ABs.  He should be up next year.  Or the next.  Got roster space?

Not 2002 either.  Bad 2001 led to his AAA demotion this year, and there is no promise of him being called up too soon.  Question is, "will he continue to eat up one of those precious 20 man spots or will he be given his walking papers."  Only time will tell.

12.  Alfonso Soriano.  And suddenly the handsome prince found a position in the Bigs and lived happily ever after!  Well, people, he should do well this year and then get better.  But his numbers thus far are only so-so.  In 82 ABs, the guy has not walked yet, leaving him with a BA of .293 and a OBA of .289.  Oh, those anxious Latinos!  For SOM, that's scary.  He made lotsa errors in the minors, but has made only one this year in 20 games at 2B.

And the handsome prince thinks he's ARod.....Well, without the walks.  The only player I know of to be drafted in the first round two consecutive years, and now it appears he was worth it.  Still can't stand to keep the bat on his shoulder, but has an OPS over .900, and this after a solid rookie campaign.  Best pick in the draft.
 

National League

1.   Rafael Furcal.  Off to a slow start, and he'll have a hard time to match his surprising 2000 season.  The rest of the anemic Atlanta line-up is not helping him.  Remember, dude, the kid is only 20.  In the long run, he'll be worth his #1 pick.

Remember, dude, the kid is only 23 now.  My how time flies.  No one can question this pick, not even today, but he is now struggling as pitchers are learning to get him out and a bum shoulder is making him a liability at SS.  Future 2B is in the cards.  When (if) healthy, he dynamite.  IF.

2.   Pat Burrell.  Started slow, but has showed some signs of picking up to last year's level.  Concern is that the Phillies have made him their LFer.  Last year, he split his time between 1B and LF last year, and he did not hit much when he played LF.  And 29 whiffs in 67 ABs this year lead one to wonder if this is Rob Deer without his defense.  One has to worry about struggling young right-handed power-hitters who cannot field.

He will get better every year until MVP's are in his future.  Like most youngsters he started off hitting opposite pitchers better (LH) and is improving on crushing RH's.  Finished 2001 with 27 HR and an .815 OPS, solid for a rookie.  On pace in 2002 for 40 HR and a .925+ OPS.  Perennial .300-40-110 type player w/ improved "D". 

3.   Corey Patterson.  Hitting .246 in AAA.  But other than White (LF) and Sosa (RF), the Cubs OF is batting a combined .110.  So Patterson could be called up for a lot of playing time in CF by mid-season.

2001 was a waste with only 140 PA's, but showed flashes of that 7 tool brilliance.  2002 started out awesome, but has slowed quite a bit in the past 3 weeks.  Heck though, he's still hitting .306 with 10 steals.  Always exciting to watch, he should be in the bigs for a long, long time to come.  Man, was this draft great or what.

4.   Jay Payton.  Oh, man.  Sorry, but the jury is no longer out on this guy.  And thumbs are down.  At 12-for-63, one walk, and no homers, this 28-year-old is not whom you want in centerfield.  His SOM fielding of 2e8 was OK, but if the Mets don't pick up from their 8-11 start, that too will fall.

The jury has sentenced him to death.  He was cut from the 20 man roster and redrafted in the 2002 draft.  He will probably be cut again, and so on.....His offence fell, his defense fell, and now he's a 4th OF'er.  Looking at the guys available below, this is one of the works draft picks ever. 

5.   Adam Eaton.  The first of three consecutive young starting pitchers selected.  He's won 2 of 3 starts, but has a 7.56 ERA.  But he's a Padre, so he'll get plenty of time to straighten things out.  And let's support these local boys!

Can you say "Tommy John?"  Was pitching OK, sore arm and all until the surgery.  While all young pitchers carry this injury risk, it is still a shock.  This will be a wait and see pick.  Great talent if he can come back form the surgery.

6.   Brad Penny.  Second of the three pitchers and by far the best thus far.  In 4 starts, he's averaged 7 IP each and a 2.51 ERA.  That includes a shutout.  Looking like a very solid pick!

2001 was the year he proved he could be a force in the majors.  In 2002 he's now on the DL and looks like he'll be going under the knife.  This kid is the real deal, but alas, arm injuries and high-draft-pitchers seem to go together.  Probably the best pitching pick from the 2001 draft.

7.   Rob Bell.  Started one game for the Reds, giving up three runs and whiffing six in five innings, then was shipped to AAA.  Has pitched three games there with a 3.38 ERA.  Red's starting pitchers have 6th best ERA in the NL, so he may or may not be recalled any time soon.

Can you say "stinky-poo-caca?"  Started off bad and just got worse.  Pitched badly in Cincy so they traded him to Texas where his ERA was over 7.00.  2002 is not proving to be much better.  Looks to be a career AAA or middle reliever.

8.   Juan Pierre.  If SOM can find some respect for his defense (3e11 with a +2 arm), he might be a solid speedy singles man.  He's in the Bigs, leading off, hitting .313 with a .400 OBA.  Seems to have picked up where he left off last year.  Still has not quite perfected his stealing strategies, tossed out two times in five attempts.  Let's see what SOM does with his defense next year...

Another good year in 2001, and a good start in 2002 has  made this a wonderful pick.  His defense didn't change (3+2 e9), but his impact on the bases with 46 steals did.  As offense slows down and the running game picks up, this pick has the look of a solid 10+ year man.

9.   Kevin Millar.  Geez.  If you get into the playoffs, this was a good pick.  If you don't, it was a bad pick.  For LCSB play this year, the guy has a decent bat, but an awful glove.  In the Bigs this year, he has two singles in 12 AB.  A classic case of one-year-itis.

Well, even the professionals at the Anti-Blather can get it wrong.  Millar's 2001 turned out to be a stud year as he set career highs in every offensive category.  Defense still isn't too hot, but he did score a "3" at 1B.  2002 is looking OK too (injured right now, however).  We take back all of the bad things we said about him.

10.  Pedro Feliz.  He's getting some limited playing time as apprentice to Giant's 3B man Ron Davis.  As long as he does not turn into another Ron Davis, that should be a good thing.  In the long run, things still look good, though it is doubtful that his numbers will be useful for the LCSB next year.

If he only turns out as good as Russ Davis it will be better than he is now.  Had a terrible 2001 and ended up in AAA.  2002 is a vast improvement (though in only 46 AB'S), and some kids do take longer to "get it", just ask Matt Williams.  Wait and see pick, even though he doesn't have a job in the bigs right now.

11.  Julio Lugo.  He's hitting well (.296 with 4 homers), but is he really a shortstop?  SOM did not think so (4e36), and the Astros discussed moving him to the OF.  But for now, the Astros are one game out of first with him at SS, so let's see how SOM rates him at SS this year.

Can you say 4e29?  Hit decent in 2001 but has blossomed in 2002.  He has won the SS job and the lead-off spot for the Astro's.  Right now his defense would spec up at a 3 or 4e8 and his OBP is .383.  His defense may mean he will have to fight for his job every year, but he looks to be a good pick although not a spectacular player.

12.  Jimmy Rollins.  Little Jimmy is hanging in well with the big boys, even though he's on an awful team.  Batting mostly out of the two hole, he's at .288 with a .342 OBA, plus four SBs and just one error in 16 games.  Certainly a far cry better than Desi Relaford (who was the first pick in Round 14).  Could prove to be an exceptional 12 pick.

My gosh how both #12 picks turned out to be absolute gems.  Rollins finished 2001 with 46 steals and a 2e14 rating at SS.  His 2002 is proving to be even more spectacular as he is producing at a .313-.364-.528 clip.  His defense is once again stellar and he is on pace for 40+ steals despite the increase in power.  Draft day steal!
 

And some that might have been in that first round (at least, so far...)

David Weathers (2nd round, #8, NL).  David Weathers?  Yes...he has turned in 11 solid relief appearances with the Brewers.  10 IP, 3 hits, 2 saves.  Spread out over 162 games that equates to 26 hits in 85 IP with a 1.80 ERA and 17 saves.  Can you picture that card?  Can Weathers keep it up?  Maybe it's this new strike zone....

Very efficient 2001.  Looks good as far as relievers go..........................................

Wade Miller (2nd round, #9, NL).  Man, he coulda been a true first rounder!  A 3-1 record with a 2.35 ERA in 31 IP for the Astros.  And 40 whiffs.  I tell you true, dude, many will rue the day they passed on Wade.

Yes they will.  Ended 2001 with the 2nd best stats of any rookie pitcher; and he pitched in Houston.  Injured this year, but is about ready to make a comeback.  Looks to be the real deal and a draft day special.

Herbert Perry (3rd round, #1, AL).  He's doing it again, people!  Despite spending some time on the bench hurting, he's batting .333, slugging .538, and hitting over .300 against both lefties and righties.  Of course, the aching shoulder that has led to five errors in 12 games at 3B could be a problem.

He is what he is.  The guy is Mr. consistent.  Every year he starts on the bench, and by May he's in the line-up five days a week.  2002 is proving to be the same thing.  A very good 3rd round selection.

Josh Paul (3rd round, #3, AL).  Scouts are still not convinced, but he's now learning his craft under the tutelage of Sandy Alomar.  That should be a big positive.  Hitting .286 in limited play; has thrown out three of six base stealers.

Fugetabouit.  Maybe next year or the year after, but Paul is AAA material (As inn, that's where he is right now).   One of those players that will be cut and drafted in the top 5 rounds for the next 3-4 years.  Oh well.

Britt Reames (3rd round, #4, NL).  Traded from St. Louie to Montreal, he has joined the starting rotation.  With 4 starts, he is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in 22 IP.  Only concern is a whopping 16 walks.  That could be a big concern.

Next......Not to worry, no loser here by letting this guy make it to the 4th round.

Paxton Crawford (3rd round, #11, AL).  A 2.55 ERA in four starts.  Only 27 baserunners and 2 homers in 25 IP.  He's a Red Sox, so maybe some of Pedro is rubbing off on him.

AAA, AAA, AAA, AAA.  Maybe someday, but probably not.  Picked accordingly.

Julian Tavarez (4th round, #3, NL).  He's 2-0 in 4 starts with a 1.11 ERA.  He'd have more wins, but he's with the Cubs this year.  No homers in 24 IP.  Maybe he has found his niche.  Or maybe it's something in the water -- the Cubs' staff have the best ERA for starting pitchers in the Bigs.  Who's second?  Boston, thanks to Pedro.  Julian...Pedro...  Man, it's still April!

Picked right where he should have been.  Interesting as the year progressed,  how good the scouting was in the draft.  He will always be an injured 4.50 ERA kinda guy.  See you in the 4th round next year!

Paul LoDuca (6th round, #8, NL).  He's temporarily hurting, but his numbers thus far are .378 BA, .410 OBA, and .649 SLG.  Plus he's thrown out four of seven would-be base stealers.  Will he soon be the regular Dodger catcher?

Damn, how did this happen.  The biggest steal in the draft.  Who knew???  This guy had an incredible year at the bat and behind the plate (as well as 1B).  You would expect a 3rd or 4th round guy to have a chance at stardom, but a 6th rounder? 

Paul Rigdon (6th round, #10, NL).  Looks like another unspectacular but solid Brewer starter  with a 3.33 ERA through four starts.  A solid late round pick.

Nothing special.  See ya in future drafts big-guy - maybe.

Jason Marquis (9th round, #11, NL).  How did this guy slip so low?  Playing caddy to the current Braves' starting pitchers, he has started a nice year in relief -- 6 games, 7 IP, 2 hits.  Looks like they plan to work him in slowly, but he could be the next big Atlanta starter.

Has the potential to be a stud, and came out of nowhere.  Still not there yet, but a great pick for the 11th round.  If he keeps going, we'll be talking about this pick for years to come.

Doug Mientkiewicz (10th round, #3, AL)  Looks like he's gonna make it this time.  He's hitting .364-3-14 in 16 games at 1B with no errors.  A lefty, he's ripping lefty pitchers at a .467 clip.  But when the fantastic Minnesota start falters, will he falter too?  Maybe not: he got a whiff of winning in the Olympics.

He made it with a pretty good 2001.  Defense is his ticket, as well as getting on base, but the power just isn't there.  He's down to .260 in 2002 with only 2 HR's.  I know defense is important, but he has to be worried about LeCroy taking his spot.  Probably a career bench type player.

Benji Gil (11th round, #1, AL)  Whoa!  Benji is pounding the ball out of the nine hole at .372 (That's 3-7-2), hitting both righties and lefties.  With a few extra base hits thrown in.  Still can't walk; but if he repeats his 3 at SS, he could be a very nice part of a good team.

Nice pick in the 11th, but someone late had to make an impact.  Don't expect the same in 2002.

Jason Grilli (15th round, #11, NL).  Hey, hey!  He's won 2 of 3 starts for the Marlins with a 3.06 ERA.  And he's hit a home run.  It can't last...can it?

Nope, it can't last.  Se you at Buffalo pal.