A Way Too Early Look at Those First Round Choices

American League

1.   Barry Zito.  A rough season start has left him with a 5.17 ERA, but he is 3-1 in five starts and his 37 whiffs are second only to Pedro Martinez in the AL.  Call him a Coke (the real thing).

2.   Mark Mulder.  How many times have pitchers from the same team been drafted 1-2?  He had a rough start too, but has since turned in a couple of masterful outings to pull his ERA down to 4.44.  He's given up only one homer in 24 IP.  He and Zito may prove to be a deadly lefty-lefty steamroller for the A's.

3.   Adam Piatt.  A third Oakland player in a row may have been one two many.  He's learning to play RF, largely platooning against lefties.  He's hitting .257 with 35 ABs, no homers, and no hits against a righty.  His platoon mate (Jeremy Giambi) has fared no better, so maybe Piatt will be given more playing time as the season progresses.  On the other hand, OFer Eric Byrnes is tearing up AAA pitching, and Eric Chavez has long ago wrapped up 3B, Piatt's other position.

4.   Mark Redman.  Man, this is awfully high to draft a Minnesota pitcher, especially a lefty.  But it was a weak draft and, hey, the Twins are off to a great start in 2001.  Redman was plodding along adequately this year in the Bigs until his fourth start Tuesday when Carl Everett smacked a grandslam off him, upping his ERA from 3.86 to 5.75.  We predict that the Twins finish below .500 and that Redman does not live up to his status as a #4 pick.  But he still may throw a lot of innings and make someone's 20-man roster.

5.   Kazuhiro Sasaki.  Again, very high for a relief pitcher, even a closer.  But this pick looks like it may work out.  One bad outing has ballooned his ERA to 5.06 and dropped 3 homers on him in 11 IP.  However, he leads the world with 10 saves and should do fine in the long run.  Another bad outing or two, though, could turn him into the Antonio Alfonseca of 2001.

6.   Jose Ortiz.  Hitting .179 with no extra base hits and on the DL.  Looked good in spring training, but things change when the bell rings.  Can't count him out; the A's are showing some life after their slow start, and that might pick him up.  But right now, it doesn't look good.  He could be Joe Morgan; he could be Craig Grebeck.

7.   John Garland.  Scouts swear he'd be in the Bigs for most teams.  But for the White Sox, he is doing well at AAA with a 2.77 ERA in 26 IP.  He should get some real playing time later this year, as starting pitchers for only two AL teams have ERAs worse than the White Sox.  And, of course, James Baldwin will be back on the DL soon.

8.   Frank Castillo.  This must have been intended to be another of those picks which is good or bad based on whether the team makes the playoffs or not.  But it might not turn out that way.  In four starts with the Red Sox, the oft-injured Castillo has managed an ERA of 3.60, allowing just 23 baserunners and 1 homer in 20 IP.  That includes 6 shutout IP against the world champion Yankees.  Maybe Castillo has turned things around.  If he stays healthy.  Maybe.

9.   Paul Wilson.  A pick similar to the previous pick of Castillo -- but with many fewer IP for the 2001 LCSB season -- this one has not turned out so well.  Wilson has managed to pitch just 17 innings in 4 starts, giving up 21 runs.  But it is still early, guys, and Tampa Bay does not have much pitching depth to turn to.  I'd cross my fingers.  But I don't think I'll hold my breath.

10.  Chris Stynes.  He's been on the DL, but came back Tuesday with a 3-for-5 game to up his numbers to 5-for-14.  Of note, he played 2B, because rookie Shea Hillenbrand is thriving at 3B for the Red Sox.  If he can stay healthy, Stynes should have a good year and play several positions.

11.  Joe Crede.  Not this year.  Herb Perry and Jose Valentin seem to be handling the White Sox hot corner adequately.  And did you really expect him to jump to the Bigs this year?  Of course not.  He's in AAA, hitting .259 with a couple of homers in 59 ABs.  He should be up next year.  Or the next.  Got roster space?

12.  Alfonso Soriano.  And suddenly the handsome prince found a position in the Bigs and lived happily ever after!  Well, people, he should do well this year and then get better.  But his numbers thus far are only so-so.  In 82 ABs, the guy has not walked yet, leaving him with a BA of .293 and a OBA of .289.  Oh, those anxious Latinos!  For SOM, that's scary.  He made lotsa errors in the minors, but has made only one this year in 20 games at 2B.
 

National League

1.   Rafael Furcal.  Off to a slow start, and he'll have a hard time to match his surprising 2000 season.  The rest of the anemic Atlanta line-up is not helping him.  Remember, dude, the kid is only 20.  In the long run, he'll be worth his #1 pick.

2.   Pat Burrell.  Started slow, but has showed some signs of picking up to last year's level.  Concern is that the Phillies have made him their LFer.  Last year, he split his time between 1B and LF last year, and he did not hit much when he played LF.  And 29 whiffs in 67 ABs this year lead one to wonder if this is Rob Deer without his defense.  One has to worry about struggling young right-handed power-hitters who cannot field.

3.   Corey Patterson.  Hitting .246 in AAA.  But other than White (LF) and Sosa (RF), the Cubs OF is batting a combined .110.  So Patterson could be called up for a lot of playing time in CF by mid-season.

4.   Jay Payton.  Oh, man.  Sorry, but the jury is no longer out on this guy.  And thumbs are down.  At 12-for-63, one walk, and no homers, this 28-year-old is not whom you want in centerfield.  His SOM fielding of 2e8 was OK, but if the Mets don't pick up from their 8-11 start, that too will fall.

5.   Adam Eaton.  The first of three consecutive young starting pitchers selected.  He's won 2 of 3 starts, but has a 7.56 ERA.  But he's a Padre, so he'll get plenty of time to straighten things out.  And let's support these local boys!

6.   Brad Penny.  Second of the three pitchers and by far the best thus far.  In 4 starts, he's averaged 7 IP each and a 2.51 ERA.  That includes a shutout.  Looking like a very solid pick!

7.   Rob Bell.  Started one game for the Reds, giving up three runs and whiffing six in five innings, then was shipped to AAA.  Has pitched three games there with a 3.38 ERA.  Red's starting pitchers have 6th best ERA in the NL, so he may or may not be recalled any time soon.

8.   Juan Pierre.  If SOM can find some respect for his defense (3e11 with a +2 arm), he might be a solid speedy singles man.  He's in the Bigs, leading off, hitting .313 with a .400 OBA.  Seems to have picked up where he left off last year.  Still has not quite perfected his stealing strategies, tossed out two times in five attempts.  Let's see what SOM does with his defense next year...

9.   Kevin Millar.  Geez.  If you get into the playoffs, this was a good pick.  If you don't, it was a bad pick.  For LCSB play this year, the guy has a decent bat, but an awful glove.  In the Bigs this year, he has two singles in 12 AB.  A classic case of one-year-itis.

10.  Pedro Feliz.  He's getting some limited playing time as apprentice to Giant's 3Bman Ron Davis.  As long as he does not turn into another Ron Davis, that should be a good thing.  In the long run, things still look good, though it is doubtful that his numbers will be useful for the LCSB next year.

11.  Julio Lugo.  He's hitting well (.296 with 4 homers), but is he really a shortstop?  SOM did not think so (4e36), and the Astros discussed moving him to the OF.  But for now, the Astros are one game out of first with him at SS, so let's see how SOM rates him at SS this year.

12.  Jimmy Rollins.  Little Jimmy is hanging in well with the big boys, even though he's on an awful team.  Batting mostly out of the two hole, he's at .288 with a .342 OBA, plus four SBs and just one error in 16 games.  Certainly a far cry better than Desi Relaford (who was the first pick in Round 14).  Could prove to be an exceptional 12 pick.
 

And some that might have been in that first round (at least, so far...)

David Weathers (2nd round, #8, NL).  David Weathers?  Yes...he has turned in 11 solid relief appearances with the Brewers.  10 IP, 3 hits, 2 saves.  Spread out over 162 games that equates to 26 hits in 85 IP with a 1.80 ERA and 17 saves.  Can you picture that card?  Can Weathers keep it up?  Maybe it's this new strike zone....

Wade Miller (2nd round, #9, NL).  Man, he coulda been a true first rounder!  A 3-1 record with a 2.35 ERA in 31 IP for the Astros.  And 40 whiffs.  I tell you true, dude, many will rue the day they passed on Wade.

Herbert Perry (3rd round, #1, AL).  He's doing it again, people!  Despite spending some time on the bench hurting, he's batting .333, slugging .538, and hitting over .300 against both lefties and righties.  Of course, the aching shoulder that has led to five errors in 12 games at 3B could be a problem.

Josh Paul (3rd round, #3, AL).  Scouts are still not convinced, but he's now learning his craft under the tutelage of Sandy Alomar.  That should be a big positive.  Hitting .286 in limited play; has thrown out three of six base stealers.

Britt Reames (3rd round, #4, NL).  Traded from St. Louie to Montreal, he has joined the starting rotation.  With 4 starts, he is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in 22 IP.  Only concern is a whopping 16 walks.  That could be a big concern.

Paxton Crawford (3rd round, #11, AL).  A 2.55 ERA in four starts.  Only 27 baserunners and 2 homers in 25 IP.  He's a Red Sox, so maybe some of Pedro is rubbing off on him.

Julian Tavarez (4th round, #3, NL).  He's 2-0 in 4 starts with a 1.11 ERA.  He'd have more wins, but he's with the Cubs this year.  No homers in 24 IP.  Maybe he has found his niche.  Or maybe it's something in the water -- the Cubs' staff have the best ERA for starting pitchers in the Bigs.  Who's second?  Boston, thanks to Pedro.  Julian...Pedro...  Man, it's still April!

Paul LoDuca (6th round, #8, NL).  He's temporarily hurting, but his numbers thus far are .378 BA, .410 OBA, and .649 SLG.  Plus he's thrown out four of seven would-be base stealers.  Will he soon be the regular Dodger catcher?

Paul Rigdon (6th round, #10, NL).  Looks like another unspectacular but solid Brewer starter  with a 3.33 ERA through four starts.  A solid late round pick.

Jason Marquis (9th round, #11, NL).  How did this guy slip so low?  Playing caddy to the current Braves' starting pitchers, he has started a nice year in relief -- 6 games, 7 IP, 2 hits.  Looks like they plan to work him in slowly, but he could be the next big Atlanta starter.

Doug Mientkiewicz (10th round, #3, AL)  Looks like he's gonna make it this time.  He's hitting .364-3-14 in 16 games at 1B with no errors.  A lefty, he's ripping lefty pitchers at a .467 clip.  But when the fantastic Minnesota start falters, will he falter too?  Maybe not: he got a whiff of winning in the Olympics.

Benji Gil (11th round, #1, AL)  Whoa!  Benji is pounding the ball out of the nine hole at .372 (That's 3-7-2), hitting both righties and lefties.  With a few extra base hits thrown in.  Still can't walk; but if he repeats his 3 at SS, he could be a very nice part of a good team.

Jason Grilli (15th round, #11, NL).  Hey, hey!  He's won 2 of 3 starts for the Marlins with a 3.06 ERA.  And he's hit a home run.  It can't last...can it?