The Left Coast Anti-Blather
An Official Sporadic Publication of the Left Coast SOM Baseball League

Issue #7C

Printed with the consent of an LCSB official!
 

A Brunch-Time Seasonal Look at Those First Round Choices

American League

1.  Alex Gordon.  2nd full season has to be considered a disappointment.  Face it folks, he's getting worse, not better as the year moves on.  Of good note is his improved plate discipline, generally a good sign for the future, but current stats of .263 - .336 - .390  is not what we expected from the 1st overall pick.

2.  Daisuke Matsuzaka.   8 - 0  2.53 ERA;  thank you very much.  It hasn't been pretty, with a walk rate near suicide proportions, but other than a minor injury, this guy has been everything as advertised, plus he has a full-season card for '08.  Of course, it's hard to consider him a rookie and was probably the safest bet in the draft.

3.  Cameron Maybin.    Sexy pick, especially after being traded to Florida and expected to start in CF.  Instead, he floundered in the spring and ended up in AA.  While he's improved his play this season, the hype is over and we shouldn't expect impact status from him for a while.

4.  Jarrod Saltalmacchia.    Surprisingly, Old Salty found himself in AAA to start the year, primarily due to his poor defense, but has worked his way back onto the Rangers roster.   His performance so far has been good, but unless he's the reincarnation of M. Piazza, he's headed to 1B or DH.   Lollipop would be a good nickname for his arm.  He has come on of late and we like him wherever he plays.

5.  Jacoby Ellsbury.    Comparisons to J. Damon, but with greater speed, better defense, and more power have so far come true.  He has got himself on base, has more W's then K's, stolen about every base he can find, played great defense, and been the 2nd biggest impact player, behind Dice K, in the 1st round.

6.  Phillip Hughes.   Ouch.  And we're not talking about the broken rib he suffered.  His ERA was already un-healthy when he got hurt.  WHIP over 2.0 and a tie in the W/K rate.  Of course with only 22 IP on the season, he could still have a productive card next year; but we feel better about winning the lottery.  Oh how we hate young pitchers.

7.  Clay Buchholz.  The 3rd member of Red Sox Nation to be taken in the 1st round, and the only one not to produce yet.  Back from rehab, and optioned to AAA on 5/31, "no-no" man has a lot to prove to get himself back into the bigs.  This is not the same pitcher we saw last September.

8.  Jesse Litsch.  He's given up more hits than IP  (76 / 70), handed out 10 dingers, and has only amassed 38 K's, and yet, he's been one of the best AL pitchers this year, sporting a nice 7 - 2 record; 3.45 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP.  the game is'a changing folks, and the relevance of just getting outs, is now the most important.  Looks just like his 2007 season which leads us to like his long term value.

9.  Joba Chamberlin.    This is a 2-part blog.  As a reliever, especially one with only 24 IP, he was taken way too soon.  However, if he can dominate as a starter this is a steal pick.  Now that the Yankees have decided to get him in the rotation, the true test starts.  So far, nothing special, but it's early.

10.  Billy Butler.    Started of like gang-busters, which we expected after his solid rookie season of 2007, but like a lot of youngsters out there, he's learned that ML pitchers are pretty good at adjusting and he's back crushing AAA.  1 HR in 186 AB's is not going to work, especially when you have defensive comparisons to Frank Thomas, and Thomas can outplay you at 1B or LF today. 

 

And some that might have been in that first round (at least, so far...)

(#12) J. Soria.  It's hard to take pitchers in the 1st round, needless to say a reliever, but this guys has been lights out as a closer.  Not bad for a rule 5 pickup.

(#15) H. Okajima.  Look again, it's another reliever, but alas, one with great numbers.

(#38) A. Laffey.  Done a great job filling in for injured Cleveland starters, ERA around 3.00 will put you on our map.

(#44) A. Casilla.  The stats say it all.  .333 - .383 - .500 as a 2B.  Only 84 AB's, but WOW.

(46) E. Volquez  He has only ONE game where he gave up 3 earned runs.  At  9 - 2 and a minute 1.56 ERA, he has been the best player taken out of this draft.

(#96) BJ Ryan. Screaming back after TJ surgery in 2007, he has left off right where he was in '06, dominant.

From the original Blather in 2001.  Look at how the top 10 picks have fared.

1.   Barry Zito.    Is he toast?  Pitches like it's slow-pitch baseball.

2.   Mark Mulder.  Same toaster, just had the other slot pushed down earlier.

3.   Adam Piatt.     Out of Major League (OOML) baseball and a Mitchell report guy.

4.   Mark Redman.   Long term left-handed scrub.  Currently sporting a nice 7.84 ERA.

5.   Kazuhiro Sasaki.  Back in Japan.  Short term ML career.

6.   Jose Ortiz.    OOML ball.  Fizz, fizz, fizz.

7.   John Garland.  Valuable starter for the Angels.  Two time 18 game winner, although has a mediocre 4.38 career ERA.

8.   Frank Castillo.    Pitchers and toasters should be sold together.

9.   Paul Wilson.   There's a reason toasters have 4 slots.  He's #4 on our list

10.  Chris Stynes.   Done, has been.  Never was actually.

 

National League

1. Ryan Braun.    Spectacular offensive rookie season, and now has us awe-struck again with an incredible year two.  Switch to LF will be a blessing for his "D" which Strat reminded us about last year when they gave him a 5-e 39 at 3B.  Oh yea, the guy can run too.

2.  Yovani Gallardo.  Did we say we hate young pitchers?  110 good IP in '07, great start in '08 with 20 IP and a miniscule 1.80 ERA. The the Baseball Gods spoke up and took him out for the season with a knee injury.  On a side note, he was traded away almost instantly in a deal involving Geovani Soto, so this pick is quickly becoming an LCSB folk story.

3.  Hunter Pence.  Great rookie season and Strat card moved Pence into the top 3.  Slow start in '08 had some worried, but not here at the Anti-Blather.  While he's not to his '07 stats yet,  his May poundings to the tune of   .346 - .400 - .577   has shown he's the real deal.

4.  Tim Lincecum.  If you watch him, he throws just like Oral Hershisher, and now he also has the stats to match.  To solidify a useful '07 card, he's improved 10-fold and somehow he's 8 -1 with a 2.15 ERA on a bad Giants team.  While we cringe at young pitchers, solid mechanics and a tough mental approach has lead us to believe this was the best pick in the 1st round. 

5.  Justin Upton.  In most other drafts, this guy's 5-tool prospectus would have had him set as the "for sure" #1.  Now, we think he's gonna be a supreme stud, but so far he is the 9th or 10th best player to go in the first round.    His recent 3-week performance  .105 - .261 - .263  and his inability to run the bases or play defense is a AAA demotion waiting to happen.  At 20, he's probably still two years away from being a credible, All-Star type player.

6.  Kelly Johnson.  Let's see.  If you like the 6th pick to be a 25 yr old All Star caliber 2B with over 600 usable at-bats and an OPS over  .830, this was a great selection.  Sophomore year has been just as good  .290 - .359 - .473.  Looks to be a long-term keeper and great draft choice.

7.  Josh Hamilton.   Finally.  That's about all anyone can say.  The long-ago former overall #1 pick leads the league in HR's and RBI's while hitting a mighty .315.  This coming off a sweet 1/2  '07 season where he put up a lofty OPS over .900.   At 27 he's no baby, but still plenty young enough to have some spectacular years.

8.  Homer Bailey.  Ah, another young pitcher.  Highly touted, unproven prospects are always risky, especially when they stand on the mound for a living.  Booted to the minors in the Spring to better learn command of his fastball, Bailey finally was called up in June and is looking to keep his ML job in a big-time hitters park.  Tough challenge.

9.  Yunel Escobar.  Not showing quite the hitting stroke of his remarkable rookie campaign of  '07, he's still having a very good year for the Braves.  Listen to us.  We're complaining about a Gold-Glove carrying SS hitting   .296 - .368 - .407  with a 28/37 W/K rate.  Honestly, we loved this pick and see a future perennial All-Star.

10.  Mark Reynolds.  We were not believers, and shame on us.  His contact stats were terrible last year and while he still whiff's too much, carrying a stats line of .259 - .335 - .500  with 14 HR's is pretty good.  Even better, his OPS of .994 over the last three weeks shows steady improvement. 

 

From the original Blather in 2001.  Look at how the top 10 picks have fared.

1.   Rafael Furcal.   Still an All Star talent at SS

2.   Pat Burrell.  Crushing BBalls in Philli.  Up and down, but everyday player.

3.   Corey Patterson.   Greatness never panned out, but still ML roster type talent

4.   Jay Payton.   Seems to get his 400 AB's every year.  Nice # 4 outfielder.

5.   Adam Eaton.   Still around, but injuries have taken their toll. 

6.   Brad Penny.  Currently Dodgers #1 starter w/ back-to-back 16 win seasons

7.   Rob Bell.    Career ERA of 5.71 and now done.

8.   Juan Pierre.  Nice career and putting up good Pierre type numbers w/ Dodgers

9.   Kevin Millar.  Nothing special, but everyday player with an  .820 career OPS.

10.  Pedro Feliz.   500 at bats every year with an OPS of .720..  Currently 3B for the Phillies.

 

And some that might have been in that first round (at least, so far...)

(#16) G. Soto.  Immediately traded after the draft as part of the Gallardo trade, he started '08 with a bang, but has slowed considerably since.  Still his .278 - .371 - .527  and good defense at C would have made this guy a top 5 pick.

(#28) J. Votto.  Close to Soto's #'s,  .279 - .354 - .488,  the 24 yr old Votto appears to be on his way to a  .300 - 30 - 100 type 1B.   Of course, most of his power happened in a one-week period, but we like his stroke.

(#30) N. McLouth.  Not considered the starter on opening day, he is now the best pure CF in the NL today.  Currently at .302 - .392 - .576,  he stole 22 bases in '07, so you know he has speed to boot.  He's been the NL version of Josh Hamilton.

(#34) R. Ludwick.  We lost count of how times this guy has been drafted & cut, but he's 1st round material right now.   He plays all 3 OF positions, and is protecting Pujols in the lineup with an amazing stat line of .305 - .379 - .636.

(#51) R. Dempster.  Another multiple-cut player, he's having the best year of his career at 31.  Sporting a 7 - 2  record and a 2.90 ERA, he's been one of the most consistent SP in the NL  How many of you remember he was once a 15 game winner?

(#73) C. Guzman.    Three retreads in a row, geeeze.  He's on pace to get over 200 hits, playing Gold-Glove type defense, and is also on pace for career best in HR's.   We don't know if it will last, but if it does, he have a great '08 Strat card.

(#108) F. Lewis.  Show of hands.  How many of you out there thought Lewis would be a better player at this time of year than Justin Upton?  Seems not many considering Lewis was drafted this low.  While in the hearts of Giants fans, he'll never truly replace Bonds in LF, any rookie on pace for 100 runs & 30 steals with an OPS over  .800 is better than most.

(#118) J. Cantu.    The Blather has always had a real distaste for this guy since his initial 1st round draft status in '05, but he's trying to prove that he is a real major league hitter.  Consistency has always been his problem, and he may never be this good again, but he has similar stats to his '05 season when he 28 bombs and drove in 117 runs. 

(#124) K. Wood.  If 18 saves and a WHIP of  0.82 doesn't get you recognized, nothing will.  It seems Mr. Wood has found a new home in the closer role and would make LCSB GM proud to have drafted him much earlier than the 13th round.