The Left Coast Anti-Blather
An Official Sporadic Publication of the Left Coast SOM Baseball League

Issue #1A

Printed with the consent of an LCSB official!
 

A Way Too Early Mid Season Look at Those First Round Choices

American League

1.   Barry Zito.  A rough season start has left him with a 5.17 ERA, but he is 3-1 in five starts and his 37 whiffs are second only to Pedro Martinez in the AL.  Call him a Coke (the real thing).  He has stayed consistent through 122 IP and 6 wins.  The league has figured him out, but he too is making adjustments.  His 108 K’s are a great sign of his potential.  For now, he’s only a Pepsi though. 

2.   Mark Mulder.  How many times have pitchers from the same team been drafted 1-2?  He had a rough start too, but has since turned in a couple of masterful outings to pull his ERA down to 4.44.  He's given up only one homer in 24 IP.  How about this for an improvement over last year.  Hits, walks, & HR’s per 9 IP are down, and K’s (80) are up.  His  3.77 ERA and 9 wins are top 10 material and proof he, not Zito, is the main lefty for the A’s.

3.   Adam Piatt.  A third Oakland player in a row may have been one two many.  He's learning to play RF, largely platooning against lefties.  He's hitting .257 with 35 ABs, no homers, and no hits against a righty.  His platoon mate (Jeremy Giambi) has fared no better, so maybe Piatt will be given more playing time as the season progresses.  Piatt’s season has been a disaster.  He currently has viral meningitis (it kills people) and is almost ready to come off the DL.  That’s the good news.  The bad new is he no longer has a position as Giambi is now the everyday RF.  With no homers in 95 AB’s it seems Piatt’s season is lost, maybe he can get some AB’s at 3B against lefties and be a part time DH.   

4.   Mark Redman.  Man, this is awfully high to draft a Minnesota pitcher, especially a lefty.  But it was a weak draft and, hey, the Twins are off to a great start in 2001.  Redman was plodding along adequately this year in the Bigs until his fourth start Tuesday when Carl Everett smacked a grandslam off him, upping his ERA from 3.86 to 5.75.  We predict that the Twins finish below .500 and that Redman does not live up to his status as a #4 pick.  But he still may throw a lot of innings and make someone's 20-man roster.  Boy was this way off.  I don’t mean Redman, but the Twins finishing under .500.  As far as Redman goes, he’s got arm troubles, and his ERA of 4.22 is very deceptive.  His actual ERA is 6.38.  Every year a young pitcher gets taken in this slot, and every year the GM gets “taken” with a bad performance”

5.   Kazuhiro Sasaki.  Again, very high for a relief pitcher, even a closer.  But this pick looks like it may work out.  One bad outing has ballooned his ERA to 5.06 and dropped 3 homers on him in 11 IP.  However, he leads the world with 10 saves and should do fine in the long run. This would have been a good pick for a playoff team, but not so for a .500 team.  Yes Sasaki has a decent card, and is having another good year with 29 saves and a 3.03 ERA, but good 32-year-old relievers on mediocre teams keep them that way.

6.   Jose Ortiz.  Hitting .179 with no extra base hits and on the DL.  Looked good in spring training, but things change when the bell rings.  Can't count him out; the A's are showing some life after their slow start, and that might pick him up.  But right now, it doesn't look good.  He could be Joe Morgan; he could be Craig Grebeck.  Right now he’s neither.  Pick any good career minor league player and “whammo” you have Ortiz.  He’s having a decent year in the minors, but nothing like last years fluke season where he hit .351 with 24 homers.  Worse, he has struggled defensively in AAA this year.

7.   John Garland.  Scouts swear he'd be in the Bigs for most teams.  But for the White Sox, he is doing well at AAA with a 2.77 ERA in 26 IP.  He should get some real playing time later this year, as starting pitchers for only two AL teams have ERAs worse than the White Sox.  And, of course, James Baldwin will be back on the DL soon.  Two things very shocking here.  Garland has not become a good ML pitcher, and Baldwin has not been on the DL.  That’s OK as David Wells has substituted for Baldwin and Garland may yet get his shot.  Until he learns to throw strikes without giving up the gopher ball, he’ll be meat for opposing hitters.

8.   Frank Castillo.  This must have been intended to be another of those picks which is good or bad based on whether the team makes the playoffs or not.  But it might not turn out that way.  In four starts with the Red Sox, the oft-injured Castillo has managed an ERA of 3.60, allowing just 23 baserunners and 1 homer in 20 IP.  That includes 6 shutout IP against the world champion Yankees.  Maybe Castillo has turned things around.  If he stays healthy.  Maybe.  The Blather was absolutely correct in this pick.  Castillo has helped his GM this year to make a run at a playoff spot and is posting good numbers so far.  Now for the M-A-Y-B-E.  Lightning has struck and Castillo is on the DL with a strained muscle in his back.  He should be out until August and then continue his solid 2001 campaign.

9.   Paul Wilson.  A pick similar to the previous pick of Castillo -- but with many fewer IP for the 2001 LCSB season -- this one has not turned out so well.  Wilson has managed to pitch just 17 innings in 4 starts, giving up 21 runs.  But it is still early, guys, and Tampa Bay does not have much pitching depth to turn to.  I'd cross my fingers.  But I don't think I'll hold my breath.  If you held your breath, you would have perished by now.  (Along with Wilson’s curve).  A complete disaster of a year as he had an utter meltdown.  Relegated to the bullpen with a 7.59 ERA, Wilson’s career appears to be over.  Oh well, the GM who picked him can always hope “2002, 2002, 2002.   Not.

10.  Chris Stynes.  He's been on the DL, but came back Tuesday with a 3-for-5 game to up his numbers to 5-for-14.  Of note, he played 2B, because rookie Shea Hillenbrand is thriving at 3B for the Red Sox.  If he can stay healthy, Stynes should have a good year and play several positions.  Like the man said, “have a good year and play several positions.”  Both have come true.  Stynes has played both 2B and 3B this season, and played both very well.  Maybe Strat will give him some much-earned credit.  His being beaned in the face with a fastball in May hasn’t effected his swing at all as he is hitting above .300 and near .500 in slg%.

11.  Joe Crede.  Not this year.  Herb Perry and Jose Valentin seem to be handling the White Sox hot corner adequately.  And did you really expect him to jump to the Bigs this year?  Of course not.  He's in AAA, hitting .259 with a couple of homers in 59 ABs.  He should be up next year.  Or the next.  Got roster space?  2002? 2003? 2004?  Someday this kid may get a real shot, or maybe not.  A solid pick, ever year a good player gets stuck in this same situation.  Can you say Vernon Wells?  Crede is having another good year in the minors, his first in AAA.

12.  Alfonso Soriano.  And suddenly the handsome prince found a position in the Bigs and lived happily ever after!  Well, people, he should do well this year and then get better.  But his numbers thus far are only so-so.  In 82 ABs, the guy has not walked yet, leaving him with a BA of .293 and a OBA of .289.  Oh, those anxious Latinos!  For SOM, that's scary.  He made lotsa errors in the minors, but has made only one this year in 20 games at 2B.  And suddenly the handsome prince found 1st base via the walk… He has walked 11 times in his last 29 games, though his OB% is still below .300.  He does have 24 steals though and is playing a decent 2B.  One thing for sure, Yankee fans in the stands behind first base are much happier ( and safer) with Soriano at 2B then they were with Knoblauch.  Just ask Mrs. Olberman.
 

National League

1.   Rafael Furcal.  Off to a slow start, and he'll have a hard time to match his surprising 2000 season.  The rest of the anemic Atlanta line-up is not helping him.  Remember, dude, the kid is only 20.  In the long run, he'll be worth his #1 pick.  As long as his arm doesn’t fall off…It now looks like he’s out for the year having his left arm re-attached at the shoulder.  Too bad as he was just coming into his grove after a slow start.  Look for him in 2002.

2.   Pat Burrell.  Started slow, but has showed some signs of picking up to last year's level.  Concern is that the Phillies have made him their LFer.  Last year, he split his time between 1B and LF last year, and he did not hit much when he played LF.  And 29 whiffs in 67 ABs this year lead one to wonder if this is Rob Deer without his defense.  One has to worry about struggling young right-handed power-hitters who cannot field.  Burrell has progressed nicely at the plate this year, and finally hit his first homer against a LHP last week. (It made the ESPN notes).  Defensively, he is improving to where he can identify and hit the cutoff man on two hops after he lets a routine fly ball drop for a hit.  Seriously, the Phillies have got what they envisioned this year from Burrell.  He was worthy of his #2 selection, and should be a force for years to come.

3.   Corey Patterson.  Hitting .246 in AAA.  But other than White (LF) and Sosa (RF), the Cubs OF is batting a combined .110.  So Patterson could be called up for a lot of playing time in CF by mid-season.  Finally getting his chance and he is blowing it.  Has made 2 serious base running blunders, played sporadic defense (great play 1 one day, 2 bad ones the next), and hasn’t hit.  Some might say he left his tools in AA.  The season still has a long ways to go, but so does Patterson.  Don’t expect much until 2003. 

4.   Jay Payton.  Oh, man.  Sorry, but the jury is no longer out on this guy.  And thumbs are down.  At 12-for-63, one walk, and no homers, this 28-year-old is not whom you want in centerfield.  His SOM fielding of 2e8 was OK, but if the Mets don't pick up from their 8-11 start, that too will fall.   Wait, there’s been an appeal.  Payton in up to .261 and is playing great defense in the OF.  Now if he could only take more walks.  He has also learned to quit trying to steal bases and is 1 for 2 this year.  A huge improvement over last years 5 for 16.

5.   Adam Eaton.  The first of three consecutive young starting pitchers selected.  He's won 2 of 3 starts, but has a 7.56 ERA.  But he's a Padre, so he'll get plenty of time to straighten things out.  And let's support these local boys!   He’s cut himself on the stomach with a pocket knife, let the Padre’s abuse him to where he’s now on the DL with an arm injury, and he’s still managing to have a good year!  His ERA is a tasty 4.32 and his K/W ratio has increased from 1.48 in 2000 to 2.78 in 2001.  Someday when this kid learns to keep the ball in the yard he’s going to be awesome.  He currently has 109 K’s in 116 IP

6.   Brad Penny.  Second of the three pitchers and by far the best thus far.  In 4 starts, he's averaged 7 IP each and a 2.51 ERA.  That includes a shutout.  Looking like a very solid pick!  Except for his recent injury, Penny has been the best young pitcher in the majors this year.  His fastball is devastating, and his curve and changeup are major league pitches.  Also note there are no splitters or sliders in his arsenal.  His arm should be healthy for years to come.

7.   Rob Bell.  Started one game for the Reds, giving up three runs and whiffing six in five innings, then was shipped to AAA.  Has pitched three games there with a 3.38 ERA.  Red's starting pitchers have 6th best ERA in the NL, so he may or may not be recalled any time soon.  Uh-oh.  The Reds traded away Bell for Ruben Mateo and he is now pitching poorly for Texas.  He can’t throw consistent quality pitches is the majors, and was giving up too many homers in Cinci for him to even be considered a decent pitcher in hitter friendly Arlington.  Had decent credentials in the minors, but this isn’t the minors baby, you in the bigs now.

8.   Juan Pierre.  If SOM can find some respect for his defense (3e11 with a +2 arm), he might be a solid speedy singles man.  He's in the Bigs, leading off, hitting .313 with a .400 OBA.  Seems to have picked up where he left off last year.  Still has not quite perfected his stealing strategies, tossed out two times in five attempts.  Let's see what SOM does with his defense next year...  Let’s see, .323 average, 23 steals, has a hit off Randy Johnson (the most impressive thing), and is playing great defense.  Pierre is for real as for real gets.  He has hit from his first AB in the majors and as long as he plays in Coors, he always will.  The guy even hit his first homer this year, ON THE ROAD, and only been caught stealing 8 times.  Now if he could only find some power…

9.   Kevin Millar.  Geez.  If you get into the playoffs, this was a good pick.  If you don't, it was a bad pick.  For LCSB play this year, the guy has a decent bat, but an awful glove.  In the Bigs this year, he has two singles in 12 AB.  A classic case of one-year-itis.  Maybe two-year-itus.  A nice player having a nice year for a nice team.  A definite stretch for Millar to go #9 overall, even though he’s having a good year.  Yes, he’s hitting over .300, and yes his slg% is over .500, but much like Olmedo Saenz in the AL these type of players always find there way to the bottom of the AB chain.  Once he cools down, it over.

10.  Pedro Feliz.  He's getting some limited playing time as apprentice to Giant's 3Bman Ron Davis.  As long as he does not turn into another Ron Davis, that should be a good thing.  In the long run, things still look good, though it is doubtful that his numbers will be useful for the LCSB next year.  Is this guy good? His minor league numbes last year in Fresno would suggest he is, but his major league totals stink.  He is hovering around the Mendoza line and plays defense like he doesn’t use a glove.  The Giants have given him the 3B job, but unless he produces soon, it’s back to AAA.

11.  Julio Lugo.  He's hitting well (.296 with 4 homers), but is he really a shortstop?  SOM did not think so (4e36), and the Astros discussed moving him to the OF.  But for now, the Astros are one game out of first with him at SS, so let's see how SOM rates him at SS this year.   He’s up, he’s down.  Makes great plays, then can’t catch a ball hit right at him.  Ah, the tribulations of a young player.  Lugo’s stats are almost identical to last years with two minor exceptions.  He is playing better around the bag at SS (a 3 this year?) and is less effective at stealing bases.  What you see is what you get with Lugo.  At 25 he still could see some improvement.

12.  Jimmy Rollins.  Little Jimmy is hanging in well with the big boys, even though he's on an awful team.  Batting mostly out of the two hole, he's at .288 with a .342 OBA, plus four SBs and just one error in 16 games.  Certainly a far cry better than Desi Relaford (who was the first pick in Round 14).  Could prove to be an exceptional 12 pick.  Another way-off comment here.  What does this guy have against 1st place teams anyway?  Philly is playing with great excitement and Rollins is a big reason why,  No his Ave, OB%, or slg%’s aren’t great, but he has 8 triples and is 28 of 30 stealing bases.  His range defensively has been less that average, but he has turned the double-play very well and is making very few errors.  This kid is going to have a breakout season next year.
 

And some that might have been in that first round (at least, so far...)

David Weathers (2nd round, #8, NL).  David Weathers?  Yes...he has turned in 11 solid relief appearances with the Brewers.  10 IP, 3 hits, 2 saves.  Spread out over 162 games that equates to 26 hits in 85 IP with a 1.80 ERA and 17 saves.  Can you picture that card?  Can Weathers keep it up?  Yes he can.  Good call.

Wade Miller (2nd round, #9, NL).  Man, he coulda been a true first rounder!  A 3-1 record with a 2.35 ERA in 31 IP for the Astros.  And 40 whiffs.  I tell you true, dude, many will rue the day they passed on Wade.  Wade the Fade.  Well, not exactly as his last outing at Enron was very good.  Miller’s ERA has gone up every month and he is starting to look like the 2nd round pick he his.  Let’s see how he finishes out his season before we get too happy!

Herbert Perry (3rd round, #1, AL).  He's doing it again, people!  Despite spending some time on the bench hurting, he's batting .333, slugging .538, and hitting over .300 against both lefties and righties.  Of course, the aching shoulder that has led to five errors in 12 games at 3B could be a problem.   Perry has crashed to earth in a ball of flames.  He’ll be lucky to make someone’s 20 man roster. 

Josh Paul (3rd round, #3, AL).  Scouts are still not convinced, but he's now learning his craft under the tutelage of Sandy Alomar.  That should be a big positive.  Hitting .286 in limited play; has thrown out three of six base stealers.  He’s still 2 or 3 seasons away.  Will he be protected that long?  It’s hard to imagine keeping a 3rd round pick with no track record on your roster.  But hey, he is a catcher.

Britt Reames (3rd round, #4, NL).  Traded from St. Louie to Montreal, he has joined the starting rotation.  With 4 starts, he is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in 22 IP.  Only concern is a whopping 16 walks.  That could be a big concern.   In the minors after getting hammered in Montreal.  The GM better hope his 2000 helps him win some games.  It’s over for 2001.

Paxton Crawford (3rd round, #11, AL).  A 2.55 ERA in four starts.  Only 27 baserunners and 2 homers in 25 IP.  He's a Red Sox, so maybe some of Pedro is rubbing off on him.   Pitched decent (4.76 era) but Boston still shipped him back to the minors.  Unless they come to their senses, this was a one year pick.

Julian Tavarez (4th round, #3, NL).  He's 2-0 in 4 starts with a 1.11 ERA.  He'd have more wins, but he's with the Cubs this year.  No homers in 24 IP.  Maybe he has found his niche.  Or maybe it's something in the water -- the Cubs' staff have the best ERA for starting pitchers in the Bigs.  Who's second?  Boston, thanks to Pedro.  Julian...Pedro...  Man, it's still April!   Earth to Tavarez, come in Tavarez.  He is still posting a solid ERA (3.76) and has 100 IP.  Right now it looks like Tavarez is the real deal this year.  The only problem might be fatigue as Tavarez gets up in IP.  So far, this was a great pick.

Paul LoDuca (6th round, #8, NL).  He's temporarily hurting, but his numbers thus far are .378 BA, .410 OBA, and .649 SLG.  Plus he's thrown out four of seven would-be base stealers.  Will he soon be the regular Dodger catcher?  How could this guy fall this far.  What team drafted this guy?  He is the best offensive catcher in baseball right now.  .348 ave, .386 ob%, .615 slg%.  Yes he’s a 28 year rookie old, but he’s pounding the ball, and throwing out everyone who tries to steal.  THIS has to be the biggest steal in the draft.

Paul Rigdon (6th round, #10, NL).  Looks like another unspectacular but solid Brewer starter  with a 3.33 ERA through four starts.  A solid late round pick.   Injured, Injured, Injured.  His ERA is now over 5.00 and he looks to be done for the year.

Jason Marquis (9th round, #11, NL).  How did this guy slip so low?  Playing caddy to the current Braves' starting pitchers, he has started a nice year in relief -- 6 games, 7 IP, 2 hits.  Looks like they plan to work him in slowly, but he could be the next big Atlanta starter.   Will be interesting to see if he’s kept on a 20 man roster.  Has the talent, but lacks the playing time you look for in Strat. 

Doug Mientkiewicz (10th round, #3, AL)  Looks like he's gonna make it this time.  He's hitting .364-3-14 in 16 games at 1B with no errors.  A lefty, he's ripping lefty pitchers at a .467 clip.  But when the fantastic Minnesota start falters, will he falter too?  Maybe not: he got a whiff of winning in the Olympics.  He’s still having a good year and will be a “1” again at 1B, but he has found earth the hard way.  With a thud.  All of this talk about him being the next this or that was just people trying to make news.  “Minky” is a good player, but at the end of the year he’ll be lucky to have 15 homers (he has 11 now).  Of course we are talking about draft day steals, and Minky looks to be one.

Benji Gil (11th round, #1, AL)  Whoa!  Benji is pounding the ball out of the nine hole at .372 (That's 3-7-2), hitting both righties and lefties.  With a few extra base hits thrown in.  Still can't walk; but if he repeats his 3 at SS, he could be a very nice part of a good team.   Just got traded for a 4th round pick.  How’s that for buy low sell high!  He’s having a good year, great by his standards for a mediocre Angels team.  I would say no matter what happens to Gil, by getting a 4th for him means this GM made out big.

Jason Grilli (15th round, #11, NL).  Hey, hey!  He's won 2 of 3 starts for the Marlins with a 3.06 ERA.  And he's hit a home run.  It can't last...can it?   Scrub.  Get him off of here.


 
 

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