The 2005 AL Draft, An Early Look

(Anti-Blather Press)

The season is now heading towards mid May, and the initial draft analysis has been done by the good

folks at the Anti-Blather.  We will be taking a full look at rounds 1& 2, while providing certain comments

about draft steals, surprises, and "what were they thinking's" for players taken in the other rounds.

As for grading, it would very easy to just give those with multiple 1st round picks an A, but we intend

however, to grade according to how well the players are doing with regards to others who were available,

and what player were draft day steals for their perspective slot.

AL Round 1. In what may have been the best AL draft class ever in the LCSB, 9 of the 10 draft picks are

currently starting for their respective major league clubs.  The 10th?  Poor BJ Upton and his 15 errors is in

the minors.  It won't be long however before he's committing those same errors for Tampa Bay.  So how are

the other 9 starters doing?  Let's take a good look at the team drafts and how they have panned out.

Sugar Kings. (#1) Mauer, (#4) McPhereson, (#5) Reed.  Mauer has been the bomb, period.  McPhereson

has been hurt, and has struggled mightily in his pro AB's this year.  A 24K/4W rate won't cut it in the bigs

and is the key to his terrible .586 OPS. Reed would appear to be over his head by looking at his paltry

.644 OPS, but a closer look shows a great walk and K/W rate, which points to a solid future.

Initial Grade A (for Mauer).  Long term grade depends on McPhereson learning to swing at strikes.

Steamers.  (#2) Greinke, (#9) Rios.  Greinke is the best 0-4 pitcher in baseball.  ERA is hovering

around 3.00, he's learning learned to keep the ball in the yard; and he's only 21.  Rios has improved in

all major stat categories this year. He may never hit for much power, but the rest of his game can be a plus.

Grade A-.  Greinke appears to be the real deal and Rios was a nice pick at #9.

BlueSox.  (#7) Swisher.  Moneyball man is now on the DL for 6 weeks which might have been a blessing

considering his .624 OPS.  Over hyped because of the book Moneyball, Swisher was a marginal pick at #7.

Grade C-. Swisher only had 1 good year in the minors and is destined to go back after the injury.

Warriors.  (#3) Upton, (#8 Kazmir) While both were rated higher than their pick, neither has been an

impact player in 2005.  Upton will be called up soon, but at what position?  Kazmir is as advertised, and

most lefties take a year or two to develop.  These two could be the highlight or lowlight of the draft.

Current Grade C+. Of course both could end up HOF players and make it an A+

Orbits. (#6) Sizemore. Was supposed to be in minors with Cleveland's asinine signing of Juan Gonzalez,

but normalcy set in when Gonzo ended up on the DL and the 22 yr old Sizemore got his starting nod in CF.

Sizemore has played very well both offensively and defensively and was the best OF prospect in the draft.

Grade B. Great pick at #6, but has not set the world on fire.

Athletic's. (#10) Cantu.  Sexy pick with nice (perceived) stats during September last year.  Started off well

this year but reality is now setting in.  Minor and major league 5K/1W rate dictates he'll never be more than a

low average hitter with severe defensive liabilities.  Recently moved off 2B and has 3 walks in 130 PA's.

Current Grade D-. Many other more deserving players could have been picked here.

No 1st round Picks.  Big Guys, Menace, BlackSox, Clippers.

AL Round 2.  Many players who would have been 1st round picks in previous drafts ended up falling into

the 2nd round.  Some good cards, others just good prospects, the 2nd round provided many good potential

Strat players. 

Sugar Kings. (#14) Drese, (#17) Adams.   Drese was the best full Season SP card in the draft, but a poor

start to the 2005 season has hampered the exuberance of the pick.  Adams was probably the 3rd highest

long term prospect at SS and was drafted as such.  He had been handed the starting SS job prior to

the draft and with a solid W/K rate, an OPS near .750 and good defense made him a great pick at #17.

Current Grade B.  Would have been an A if Drese's current ERA wasn't over 6.00

Steamers. (#11) Youkilis, (#12) Buck, (#19) Takatsu. Youkilis at #11?  Nice Ops near .800 last year in

250 PA's, but considered a marginal 3B prospect at 26, with limited power.  W/K rate good, but doesn't

have a job, and is now on the bench at Boston.  Buck was the #1 catcher prospect but has struggled mightily

in 2005.  OPS barely over .500 will find you in the minors quickly.  The 37 yr old Takatsu has a great 2004

card but looks and smells like gasoline in 2005. 

Grade D-.  Sorry, but none of these 3 guys may be keepers in 2005.  Ouch.

BlueSox.  (#16) Silva.  Good 2004 season posting a 4.21 ERA and following with a very good 2005 ERA

of 3.71, while averaging over 7 IP per start.  Stats don't translate well to Strat as his humorously low walk rate

(1 unintentional) in 43 IP makes him more hittable than in real life.

Grade B.  Second best full season card, and improved in 2005.

Warriors.  (#13) F. Lopez, (#18) J. Blanton.  Lopez has been hurt and is yet to see an AB in 2005.

Comparisons to ARod or Garciapara are still unmerited.  The 2nd highest rated SS prospect in the draft, he'll

have to beat out Pokey Reese for the SS job.  Blanton has a pathetic 15W / 13K rate and has seen his

ERA jump to over 5.00 due to the long ball.  We see AAA in his future unless he fixes the problems.

Grade D+.  One is hurt, the other is sinking fast.

Orbits. (#15) Kotchman.  Steal of the 2nd round.  Kotchman was probably the 4th best player in the draft,

but fell because he doesn't have a job.  Started slowly, but is now coming on strong.  With Erstadt slumping

and always an injury threat, Kotchman should be able to show his vast talent at some point this season.

Grade A.  How did this guy fall to #15!

Athletic's.  (#20)  W. Harris.  Nice player, with speed and a good walk rate, Harris is a backup player who

will never be more than career backup.  In over 800 PA's, Harris' career OPS is a miniscule .605.  2005 is

not being kind to Harris either as he has found himself on the bench for most of the season.

Grade F.  Taken 3 rounds too early, and proving why in 2005.

No 2nd round Picks.  Big Guys, Menace, BlackSox, Clippers. (Same 4 teams)

For the third round and forward, we will just take a look at those who were draft day steals, or

players who we question as to "why" they were picked in their spot.

Round 3.  (#28) G. Chacin, & (#23) B. Madritsch were big steals.  Chacin has been great in 2005 while

Madritsch was considered for a late 1st or 2nd round pick.

Round 4. (#46) Nook Logan has taken the starting CF Job in Det and has an OPS over .900 while hitting

.367 for the season.  (#47) Frankie (the fluke) Menechino was snagged early.

Round 5. (#52) D. Newhan and (#59) J. Kubel were huge steals. How Newhan fell this far, the writers at the

Anti-Blather will never know.  Kubel will be out all year, but is well worth the wait.  He is a premier prospect.

Round 6. (#67) E. Bedard is having a tremendous 2005, as in All-Star like.  ERA is 2.31 and has 41K / 9W

in 46+ IP.  Can you say stud?  (#63) B. League was Toronto's #1 rated prospect, but must have fallen

because he was a reliever without a card.  Surprise, Toronto has him in the minors as a SP.  We'll see him

and his 98 MPH fastball soon.

Round 7.   Watch for (#70) M. Wood.  He has the potential to be an effective SP in a couple of years.

Round 8. (#83) Yan was a good pickup this late. Relievers were a premium this year and he slipped through.

Round 9. (#94) B. Wickman already has 11 saves this year. (#99) Granderson is the CF of the future in Det. 

Round 10.  (#98) R. White was a nice pickup here.  Good card, .790 OPS and playing well in 2005.

Round 11, 12.  Nothing special.  As in who cares. 

Round 13.  The current AL HR leader was picked in this round.  Can you say (#128) Tino Martinez?

It seems Tino likes the feel of Yankee Pinstripes.  Of course the Anti-Blather is waiting for reality to set in.

Round 14.  What's so special here?  Why, (#132) Calvin Pickering of course.  And although he won the

opening day DH job in KC, they soon rediscovered why he has failed so often in the past. 14 K's in 27 AB's

is horribly bad.  The LCSB's first round namesake for the award is safe for another year.

Round 17.  A couple of players caught our eye in this round.  But, what the heck you say?  The 17th is just

a waste of time.  But hey, we have the spring training HR leader here in (#152) Jonny Gomes.  While he

didn't make the opening day roster, his power potential forced Tampa to at least bring him up for a bit.

And finally, why was the crippled (#155) F. Vina picked in the draft.  Can you say done?

Overall Grades For Each Team As Compiled By The Blather Writers.

Sugar Kings - Hard to fail when you have 3 of the first 5 picks and 9 of the first 39.  But other than Mauer,

this draft was mediocre at best. Mauer makes it a B, and without him it deserves a C-.

Steamers.  It had to be hard picking Greinke over Upton, but so far the risk paid off.  While Youkilis was

taken too early, it was made up with the Newhan pick in the 5th.  With 9 picks in the first 40, this could

have been an awesome draft, instead it was "just alright."  Give 'em a  B-.

Big Guys.  Had Only 1 pick in the first 6 rounds and used it to pick a good reliever in Hammond.  Overall

we liked this draft as they got good value in Hammond, White, and Yan.  And how you can you not like the

GM that picks Pickering?  Grade. A-

Menace.  First pick was #34 and was used to take mediocre reliever Travis Harper.  We don't mean to slam

the pick, only that relievers were so scare, Harper was actually a good pickup in this slot.  This draft seemed

to focus on veterans, and other than Wickman in the 9th round, was pretty bad.  Grade D+.

BlueSox.  Good draft.  Got value with every pick through the first 6 rounds, and a couple of value picks

in Nageotte and Keilty in later rounds.  A. Gonzalez was thought to be a steal in the 3rd round, but his lack

of hitting put him back into AAA.  Proud to give a Grade of B.

BlackSox.   First pick was in round 3 where draft steal B. Madritsch and super speedster J. Gathwrite were 

taken.  With Kubel, Timlin, Cairo, and Logan, this draft saw plenty of value.  Grade B-

Clippers. This is a tough draft to grade.  The first pick wasn't until the 6th round, so it's hard to crack down

on the lack of prospects taken.  D. Navarro was the first pick, but his Yankee over hype showed when he was

traded to the Dodgers and they realized how far away he is from being a major league player.  Of course

E. Bedard was also taken in the 6th as a top 3 draft day steal.  However, you would hope that someone

other that Bedard would be worth keeping.  Not so.  Grade C.

Warriors.  With 5 of the first 28 picks, the draft went solely with prospects early.  Upton, Lopez, Blanton,

Kazmir, and Chacin are all top 3 material for their respective major league teams.  Getting League, Tampa's

#1 prospect in the 6th, and T. Martinez in the 13th were huge steals.  While the kids probably won't have

a major impact (we think Chacin will come to reality soon) this year, watch out for 2006.  Grade A-.

Orbits.  This draft had only 3 picks in the first 6 rounds, but each was a draft day steal, with the biggest

being Kotchman in the 2nd.  Sizemore will be an All-Star and Majewski was a gift in the 6th.  If Granderson

were only starting in CF now for Det, this would be an A+ draft.  Instead we give it a solid A-.

Athletics.  Started bad with Cantu and didn't improve much.  Best value  pick would be Wood in the 7th, and

considering this draft had the first 7 rounds, that's not saying much.  Nothing in the later rounds were writing

home about made the defending champions draft a bust.  Grade F.